2007 Phillies Crystal Ball: Wes Helms

Today's subject of psychic evaluation will be focused on our new man who will patrol the hot corner: Wes Helms

Our infield for 2007 will be composed of young homegrown talent with Helms being the exception. Besides starting pitching, our biggest weakness in 2006 was 3rd base, which saw extremely sub par offense all year. So it became obvious heading into 2007 that third base was our second biggest need for improvement. And while everyone clamored for a signing of Ramirez or a trade to get Crede, we all settled for a veteran who oddly enough is getting better after passing through the age of 30. Here is what Wes did in 2006

Defense
Helms spent 88 games with Florida playing first base and 1 game in Left Field. Playing 3b (the position we signed him for), Helms only played 23 games. Further more, using AdjG, he only played in 10 full 9-inning games committing 2 errors and not being involved in 1 double-play. Overall, in his career, he has compiled a RAA of -23 playing 3B.

Offense
While Helms defensive abilities may scare you, he did start hitting like a machine the second half of last year. He didn't start batting consistently above .250 until mid-June and still was struggling until August rolled around. Then, unlike Charlie Manuel's brain, something clicked and Helms finished out the year very strong, hitting .329 with a .575 SLG and 10 homeruns. 2006 was truly a Jekyll and Hyde season.

For the past two posts, we used Pat's subscription to Baseball Prospectus to formulate what this season had in store for our players. When researching Helms, however, I found that BP has him only getting 167 PA and is penciled in as a First Basemen. Since Howard will obviously be at first and we can only assume Helms is going to get to the plate more than 170 times, I decided to use my own brain and my own PECOTA.

2007
Defense
Well, if the past is an indicator for the future, we have to assume that Helms will not win any gold gloves anytime soon. He won't be nearly as good as Nunez was and won't make the plays that Bell could. I'm not going to throw any numbers out here, but I envision below average defense coming from one of the most important positions in baseball.

Offense
This is the reason we got Helms. The Phillies desperately needed more offensive production from third and hope Wes can provide that. Listed to the right, our own PECOTA has him batting .280 with 16 homeruns and 60 RBIs. I can't see him batting over .300 considering he spent over 5 months last season batting below .290. The power surge is a bit optimistic but he hit 10 dingers in a big ballpark in Miami and will benefit from our luxuriously small LF. The 60 RBIs are contingent on him batting 6th behind Burrell, an on-base machine. He is definitely what we needed: an upgrade.

But now here is where I am disturbed. Should we be comfortable with just an upgrade to Abraham "I can't swing at shit" Nunez? Last year, besides Tomas Perez, I believe Nunez was the worst hitter in all of baseball. Anyone on the free agent market or available through a trade is automatically an upgrade. So in comparison, yes it is nice to see Helms here. But should we be satisfied? I may be one of the only fans who isn't entirely complacent with Helms at 3rd base for us. Unless his turn around after the all-star break was for real, I can't see Helms being much better than what we got from David Bell in the past. Now I may be (and I hope I am) completely off about Helms' defensive INability and his offensive output. If he gives us the numbers I projected with average play at third base, then our team will certainly be improved in 2007. But like I said, it's all relative to how poor Nunez was in 06.

But still, we should all be thankful that it isn't Nunez who will be running out with the team come April 2.

2007 Phillies Crystal Ball: Carlos Ruiz

For our next installment, we will use Driven To Deep Center's crystal ball and see what how it feels about a little man named Carlos Ruiz


2006 was the first chance Phillies' fans got the opportunity see what Ruiz could do at a major league level. He was called up in the beginning of May and got his first hit off of Pedro Martinez on May 9 (I was at the game). He struggled on his first call up amassing only 5 hits from May 6 to the 26. He was then sent back down, then called up again...then sent down again...then finally called up one last time in September. Let's see how Ruiz performed last season and what we can expect from him in 2007.

2006:
Defense
After beginning the season with Fasano and Lieberthal behind the plate, just about anyone would be considered an upgrade on defense. Ruiz, in 18.5 AdjG, committed 3 errors, had 10 assists and 1 passed ball. Since this is a small sample size, I don't feel it truly shows the kind of defensive makeup Ruiz has.

Offense
Ruiz struggled at first and never really found his swing on his first Major League call-up. He never looked uncomfortable at the plate, however, never seemed able to handle big league pitching. But when September came around, Ruiz came around. From the 6th until the end of the season, he went 9-22 and was finally showing positive signs at the plate. Overall he finished with a line of .261/.316/.435 with 3 dingers and 10 RBIs.

What can we expect from our "catcher of the future"? Well, since I am a psychic, I will tell you...

Defense
Overall, we can expect better defense behind the plate than we have seen in recent years past. Baseball Prospectus is projecting a FRAA (Fielding Runs Above Average) of 3 for 2007. Don't expect a Pudge, however, we should get solid play calling and defense from Ruiz in 2007.

Offense
This is difficult to project because, like Nunez, we don't really know how much time he will see at the plate. If he struggles in Spring Training and Barajas and Coste hit the cover off the ball, we may not even see Ruiz on April 2. The odds of him not making the squad, however, are slim and unfortunately it seems like Coste will be the odd man out. Baseball Prospectus is projecting a PECOTA line of .278/11/52 to go along with a .439 SLG and a VORP of 15.1. They also see a 41% chance of improvement rate along with a 12% breakout rate. Since his playing time could be split between 2 other players, projecting Ruiz's numbers can be very risky. Our own PECOTA that we made up on this site (listed to the right) has him hitting 13 homeruns with 48 rbis, which is very similar to BP's.
The biggest plus, I can see with Ruiz is his speed. He is not considered a fast runner by any means, however, we now finally have a catcher that our pitcher can bunt over. In 2006, if either Fasano or Lieberthal got on base, our pitcher had to lay down a perfect bunt to move either one to second. Ruiz isn't base-stealer but he does have decent enough speed to not inhibit the Phillies once he is on basepaths.

This graph shows Ruiz's 2007 EqA (total offensive value per out) forecast:


Norm= League average
Replace= Replacement Level player (a player who will produce around 75% of the number of runs as an average player)

Bottom Line: Ruiz will be an average catcher, with average hitting ability, to go along with average power, and average defense on what we pray is an above-average team. A lot of his numbers depend on his playing time, which as of now seems like it will be split between Barajas. Overall, I will be glad to see him start this summer and hope we can depend on him for the next few years. We shouldn't expect for outstanding offense from our catcher position in 2007. We can all deal with this knowing our first baseman can hit enough homeruns for practically our whole team.

My guarantee to you: He will hit better than Nunez. Quote me

2007 Phillies Crystal Ball: Abraham Nunez

Today is our first installment of a series of Crystal Ball Posts that we have planned for the 2007 Phillies. It is a brief synopsis of what each player did in 2006 and what we can expect from them this season. We will start with the bottom of the Barrel. First up: Abraham Nunez

The 2006 Phillies came within a few games of making the ever-elusive playoffs. Certainly, some of that blame has to fall on the below-average performance of our starting third basemen during the 2nd half of the season. Now, there are many reasons why we did not make the playoffs. But when your everyday third basemen can't hit with over a .600 OPS, you are most certainly in lots of trouble.

Let's take a look at Nunez's 2006 and see where he is headed during the Phillies 2007 campaign.

2006:
Defense
There can't be too many complaints here. The guy has got a solid glove and is capable of making some extraordinary plays in the field.

Offense
*WARNING: GRAPHIC CONTENT BELOW*

AVG .211 (late surge kept him over the Mendoza line)
OBP.303 (a sickening observation...but maybe his strong point for the year!)
SLG .273 (that's right...it was under .300!...for a 3B!)
VORP: -18.2 (meaning that basically you could get anyone to play the position and they couldn't screw it up as much as this guy)

Home or away, night or day, this guy had an incredibly bad season. There is not a single aspect of his offense that was above average. Surely we cannot live with this in 2007. So what is on the horizon?

2007:
Defense
There is little reason to believe he won't be an above-average 3B. Although his ability dropped slightly from '05, he will still be a solid contributor in the field. We'll see if Manuel decides to sub him in during the late innings at 3B.

Offense
Well, he can't be that bad again can he? Fortunately, no I don't think he can. Pecota forsees a line of .241/.307/.308. But who can ever tell with this guy. Up and down over the past couple of years. One good thing is that with Helms now onboard, there is another option. So I wouldn't look for Nunez to see much more than 200-250 PA's during the year. He just simply does not bring much to the table as far as offense goes. Non-existant power, not much speed, inconsistent bat, strikes out way too much.

This graph shows Nunez's 2007 EqA (total offensive value per out) forecast:



Norm= League average
Replace= Replacement Level player (a player who will produce around 75% of the number of runs as an average player)

Even with the most optimistic of views (95th percentile), he would still be around league average (2.60). More probable is him performing aroud the 45th or 55th percentile which would give him an EqA similar to that of last years (.205-.215).


Overall Outlook:
Listen, Honest Abe seems like a nice guy. But he simply played some very bad baseball last year. It seems as if 2005 was truly a mirage as he has shown nothing since then. I don't think it is unfair to say we can't really count on this guy for much else other than his glove.

The Phillies Super Value Menu

Other blogs have discussed the value of Utley relative to his recently signed contract. This got me thinking, how valuable are our players relative to the Phillies. I have compiled my top 5 most valuable Phillies (not including prospects). Taken into account, I considered their value for the present (2007 season), their position played and their future value (next 3-4 years). Age is also taken into account.

1) Chase Utley
To me, Utley is the best Phillie currently on the team and will be for the years to come. Howard is VERY close but I have to give Chase the slight edge. Utley's position is my main reasoning. A power hitting second baseman is a lot harder to find than a power hitting first baseman. He is a tremendous baserunner, plays solid defense, hits for average, and has solid numbers with RISP. I don't see him tailing off anytime soon and he leads purely by example. If it is late in a close game, there is no one I would rather have up to the plate than Chase.

2) Ryan Howard
He was almost number 1 and it was hard to pick against him. It was like picking a favorite son if you are a parent or picking a favorite Jack Bauer moment if you are a 24 fan. Howard is our main run producer and that is how you win games. He is young and will be a Phillie hopefully his entire career. He is just entering his prime and seems like we can count on him for over 40 homeruns a year. I guess all I really have to say is most VALUABLE player. He did just win that after all.

3) Cole Hamels
If Utley and Howard aren't the future of this franchise in your eyes, Hamels has to be it then. At 23, he is still 5 years away from what analysts consider his 'prime' and he may very well be our ace by June. He has a changeup that should be illegal and if he stays healthy the rest of his career, will probably lead the league in Ks at least once. The Majors are starved for pitching now which raises his value even more. He could develop into one of the top pitchers in the National League which is something the Phillies haven't had since Schilling. Pitching wins championships and Hamels seems to be our best shot.

4) Jimmy Rollins
The classic statement "When Jimmy goes, the offense goes" couldn't be truer. When Rollins goes into his week-long slumps where he goes 7-38, you can obviously see that the Phillies rely on pitching to win those games. Rollins causes disturbance when he is on base, finds ways to always be in scoring position and knocks in his fair share with his newly found power. I will be alone on this next statement but I consider him a top notch leadoff hitter. He scores runs in bunches and is truly the catalyst of the team. His slumps are frustrating and can equate to losing streaks but he is a necessity for the Phillies to score. Also, I consider him the best leader on the Phillies which is extremely valuable in my eyes.

5) Brett Myers
This spot was a tough decision for me. I had it narrowed down to Myers, Victorino and Garcia. Victorino will possibly end up being our center fielder (an extremely important position) for the next couple of years. Garcia, if signed beyond 2007, can be a dominant force on our staff. Myers, however, can be brilliant if he gets his head together and is also 5 years younger than Garcia. And like I said earlier, pitching is at a premium. The better a player makes our team's staff, the more valuable he is. Myers indeed will battle Hamels for the title of 'ace' for years to come.

All five players listed are Phillies homegrown talent, so we should give credit to our farm system. It isn't spectacular but has produced very valuable players for us in the recent years. All five players can be counted on to be with Philadelphia for the next half-decade and are still hitting their primes. These five are our best shot at a championship. This was a tough list to narrow down and many players can be flip-flopped. Feel free to call me wrong.

Bill Conlin vs Me (and you)

A few days ago I wrote about an article by Steve DiMeglio of the USA Today that showed how dumb sports writers can sound if they don't know what they are talking about. Well...

I just found this article today and was hoping someone could tell me what the hell Bill Conlin is trying to prove. From what I read, he seems mad at Burrell because he isn't as good as Hall of Famer Joltin Joe DiMaggio. What is he trying to say? That Pat Burrell isn't one of the top 5 players OF ALL TIME?! This isn't journalism. This is the most blatant form of propaganda. Conlin (for whatever reason) has a vendetta against Burrell. He is trying to make him look even worse than the media already portrays...by using the argument that DiMaggio didn't strike out as much! This isn't a breaking story, this isn't an interesting read, this isn't something someone should be paid to do! It is merely an old man's refusal to grow out of the past, all while attempting to bury a current baseball player. I am in awe that this got printed.

People in the media claim that blogs are just places for uninformed, unreliable people with no life to share their unwanted thoughts to the world. Read We Should be GMs, Beerleaguer, Balls Sticks & Stuff, The Good Phight, Phillies Baseball, Stain Club, Philadelphia Phanatics, The 700 Level, Phillies Nation, Swing and a Miss, Phillies Flow, A Citizen's Blog, Philly and Beyond and then read half the dribble printed in a paper. Now compare the two. See how it adds up.



P.S. I didn't mean to stay on the Burrell topic but I felt like this needed to be addressed. Here is another Conlin article from a few months back where he attacks blogs and cyberfans for not being intelligent. I never claim to be smart, but at least I'm not a douchebag.

LATER

The Final Post on Burrell

Well, it took a lot longer than we expected, but we did our best to debunk the Pat Burrell myth. That myth being this: Burrell hurts the Philadelphia Phillies. The six arguments we tried to expose (clutchness, strikeouts, salary, walks, defense, meaningless RBIs) were not easy, however, we did our best. We agree he can be frustrating at times but he should no way be hated the way that he currently is.

But now here is the better question: Our these reasons not the cause for this intense state of criticism? Is there another cause? Someone commented on a previous post that it was his "I don't give a shit" attitude and that he is universally disliked in the clubhouse. We also read that he does not hustle. I guess since Abreu is gone, fans need someone else to yell at for not 'hustling.' Look, I love hustle and I adore it when players go all out. It makes the team more likable and more fun to watch. I agree that no one wants to watch a player who doesn't care about the game and I don't want a player like that on my team. But is this the case with Burrell? Personally, I couldn't agree less. I can't measure this with a stat so I really don't have great basis for my opinion, but then again do any of these fans have a basis for their 'no-passion' argument? I will, however, bring up two examples of Burrell's 'passion' that stick out in my mind.

June 9, 2005. At home versus the Rangers. After Teixeira hits two homeruns, Padilla beams him. The next inning Abreu is nailed by Tejera of the Rangers...obviously intentionally. Burrell is next up and smacks a homerun (his second of the night). The Comcast camera's showed Burrell after the swing: He slams down his bat and screams "Take that mother fucker." Now of course I couldn't hear him say it, but anyone over 11 years old could have told you what he said.
Bottom line: he stuck up for his teammate.

August 19, 2006. At home versus the Nationals. Ramon Ortiz is getting shelled by the Phillies' offense and hits both Chase Utley and Aaron Rowand. Ortiz is ejected after the second hit and immediately Utley runs out of the dugout looking for trouble. Who is right behind him looking to back up his boys? Burrell. Both Chase and Pat are pissed and came running to Aaron's defense.
Bottom line: he stuck up for his teammate

Are these two great examples showing the character and attitude of Burrell? Not really, but they show that he does have passion. In our opinion, he has that fire that everyone in Philadelphia loves. Then again, having passion doesn't make you a great ballplayer. If Alex S. Gonzalez had all the passion in the world, would it even matter?

So in summary, all we can do from here on out is hope that Philadelphia will see that Burrell isn't the monster that journalists, radio hosts and women looking for a relationship make him out to be. I'll be at Citizens Bank Park April 2 and when 'Holy Diver' is blasting over the speakers, you will see me clapping. Not booing...but possibly fighting someone who is.


Also, here is three things I bet you didn't know about Burrell:
1) He loves America
2) He loves the classic game "Operation"
3) He loves freedom



One last time, we are not claiming that Pat Burrell is the best Phillie ever or that he is next Joe DiMaggio. Just simply stating that he is the most unjustly hated pro athlete in Philadelphia today. Thank you.

7/85

He will be seeing you through 2013

LATER

Phloggers are better than 'writers'

I have come to the conclusion that people who don't live in (or write for) Philadelphia should not talk about Philly sports. The example I am using comes from Steve DiMeglio of the USA Today. I found this article yesterday and thought it was cool that a national paper was talking about our little Phils. It was all fine and dandy until halfway through I read:

Acquiring pitchers hasn't consumed all of Gillick's time. With longtime catcher and fan favorite Mike Lieberthal lost to the Dodgers as a free agent, Gillick signed free agent catcher Rod Barajas, who has hit 47 homers in 325 games over the past three seasons with Texas.

First: Did we really lose Lieberthal to the Dodgers? We never wanted him back. This isn't really a loss for Philadelphia

Second: I found it hilarious how DiMeglio tried to make Barajas look like a stud with his amazing 47 homers...in three years

Third: FAN FAVORITE!! I mean, I didn't hate the guy. But from 2004 on, would you consider him a fan favorite?

He also reiterates this statement later in the article:

Longtime fan favorite Mike Lieberthal is gone, and free agent signee Rod Barajas is the favorite to become the starter.

Want another dumb comment?

Rugged Aaron Rowand is tough enough to play linebacker for the Eagles. He missed 50 games last year after he broke his nose crashing into a fence. Has good power for a center fielder, too.

First: He missed 15 games due to his broken nose. The remainder was missed when he almost killed our star at 2nd

Second: His only good power year was 2004 when he hit 24 homeruns. He hit 12 with the Phillies and 13 in 2005. I wouldn't really consider power his strong point.

The rest of the article is ok. I just thought all you Phillies fans would find some of this stuff funny. Bottom line: Every author of every blog listed to the right could do better than this when talking about the Phightins. And maybe I am just being harsh because I am bored with nothing to talk about. Or maybe it is because the Phillies are like my kid sister...anytime I see some dickhead messing with them or not doing them justice, my gut instinct says slaughter and destroy.

I googled slaughter and this picture came up. I want to be in a band like this.

LATER

The Ultimate Pat Burrell Post: Part 6 - Defense

Continuing with our Burrell posts, our final installment of the arguments made against Pat has come. This post will focus on the defensive capabilities that Burrell possesses. With this, we will touch on his speed and base running.

The statement we so often hear:

Burrell is a liability in the outfield. He has very little range and is very slow to get to balls hit to him. His sub-par defense hurts our team.

As we have done with all our other posts, let's first look at his numbers...

Year - PO / A / E / RF / fPCT
2004 - 217 /9 / 4 / 1.92 / .983
2005 - 236 / 10 / 7 / 1.71 / .972
2006 - 204 / 8 / 3 / 1.93 / .986

This shows us...Burrell is not a good fielder. His range factor is very weak and his fielding percentage changes year to year. Last season he committed three errors but had seven in 2005. Someone would have to be drunk, high or Charlie Manuel to say "Burrell is a great fielder." Your left fielder, however, typically isn't your stellar athlete. Also, compared to other left fielders, is he that horrendous?

In 2006...
Average fPCT for NL left fielders: .982
Burrell: .986

Average RF for NL left fielders: 1.97
Burrell: 1.93

Average errors by NL left fielders: 4
Burrell: 3

Average assists by NL left fielders: 5.8
Burrell: 8

Synopsis: In 2006, compared to the rest of the National League left fielders, Burrell was shockingly above average in fielding percentage, errors committed and assists. He was also only .04 less in range factor. Does this mean he is a credit to our outfield and deserves an award? Not at all. It just simply states that while he will never have the ability of Crawford, Beltran or Jim Edmonds, he is not as horrible as people make him out to be. Once again, we are not saying Burrell will ever win a gold glove or that he deserves praise because of his athletic ability. But we are saying that it is rare to have a team with a left fielder with supreme defensive skills. Yes...teams have them. But your average team in baseball is in the same situation as the Phillies: poor defense in left.

Plus we must not forget the cannon that Burrell possesses. I don't know how to find a stat on throwing arms. I am sure, however, some Dungeon and Dragons nerd out there made up one with his TI-83. And guess what...Burrell's arm would probably be up on the top of that list. There are two basic principles of defense: catching and throwing. We already established that Burrell isn't the best when it comes to getting to the ball, but once he does finally grab a hold of it, he can throw it with the best of them.

And as stated earlier, we will touch on Burrell's speed and baserunning. Here it is:

He is slow and sucks at running the bases...there. I can't defend it. But I can say that he has been running on a bum foot the past two seasons. And the surgery he had on his foot prior to this last season takes almost a year to fully heal. (I heard that on Daily News Live) So will he be running like J-Roll this upcoming season? Don't hold your breath. But you can't hate on a man for being born a slow runner...or white.

Almost done these posts. The next and final one will touch on everything else we missed. It will probably turn into a joke post talking about how we actually admire his pimp juice more than anything else.

LATER

The Ultimate Pat Burrell Post: Part 5 - Strikeouts

The toughest part of these posts has come. Us trying to rectify that Burrell striking out isn't a horrible thing is like saying Cole Hamels being a bare-knuckle boxer during the offseason is okay. So before we continue, let us remind everyone before this post that we are not claiming that Pat Burrell is the best Phillie ever or that he is the next Carl Yastrzemski. So bear with us on this...

The statement we so often hear:
Burrell's strikeouts are killing our team. He takes it right down the middle and looks horrible swinging at low and away pitches.

First let us give you the numbers on Burrell:

Year - k's - NL Rank
2000 - 139 - 5
2001 - 162 - 3
2002 - 153 - 5
2003 - 142 - 6
2004 - 130 - not in top 10 (woohoo)
2005 - 160 - 2
2006 - 131 - 10

What does this show us? For one, Burrell has never struck out less that 130 times in a season. Second, besides 2004 he has finished in the top 10 of strikeouts every year of his career. So the statement that Burrell whiffs to much is very clear. But Burrell striking out at the plate over 130 times is about as routine as me striking out with the rich hoes in Old City on a Saturday night. You just come to expect it and learn to bear with the shameful truth.

So let us look at Burrell's two best years (in our opinion), 2002 and 2005. Both years he hit over .280/30/100 and placed 14th and 7th in the MVP voting, respectively. His strikeout total these years: 153 and 160. His second and third highest totals of his career. So does this mean the more Burrell strikes out the better he will be? No. But this can show us that Burrell's strikeouts will always be there and they may or may not hinder his performance in other offensive areas.

Here is a scenario to consider:

If Burrell strikes out only 75 times but hits only 20 homers, fans would consider that a poor year and call for his execution at City Hall. If, however, he K's 170 times and hits over 40 bombs, people would be calling for a contract extension. Basically we are saying that fans tend to look at strikeouts only when a player is failing in other areas of their game. If Burrell was hitting the cover off the ball (2002, 2005) on a nightly basis, no one would be talking about his high K total. Just like no one says "Don't give Howard a long term deal. He is a strikeout machine." Strikeouts are only mentioned when a player isn't producing, which we feel shouldn't concern Burrell. Read our previous posts and you will see he is producing.

Also, if you are a small-ball team, you don't want many players with over 100 strikeouts. You would want players who put wood on the ball and can move runners. But guess what, the Phillies aren't your typical small ball team. A Citizen's Blog has a great post on how the Phillies follow your typical Moneyball/Big Ball/ Powerhouse style of baseball. For this you need power/homerun hitters...and with this comes numerous strikeouts.

Power hitters strikeout a lot. It's science. Here are some names you will most likely see finishing in the top ten in strikeouts each year:

Jim Thome
Adam Dunn
Jim Edmonds
Ryan Howard
David Ortiz
Alex Rodriguez
Alfonso Soriano

And here is something half of the city won't want me talking about. Both Chase Utley and Ryan Howard struck out more that Burrell in 2006. Granted...they both had more at bats and both produced more offensively. This does, however, show you that you cannot simply look at a players K total to determine their worth to a team. Howard will almost certainly be in the top 5 each season in strikeouts. It is just something we are going to have to deal with...much like Burrell.

The strikeouts looking, however, are another thing entirely. This past season, Pat led the Majors in being caught looking. We can't find the numbers anywhere on these but we are fairly sure he went down looking over 60 times. Why is this? Do the umps hate Burrell? Is he just unlucky with the calls on the corner of the plate? No... Burrell has lost his aggressiveness. He seems unsure at the plate and is uncomfortable when he is at bat. Some claim he is looking for a walk when the count gets full. Does this make us happy?....Umm, is Paris Hilton a whore? It needs to be rectified and I am confident the 2006 boobirds helped Pat realize this. So I guess we will have to wait and see what Burrell will show us in 2007.

Wow...okay. So there it is. It's the best we could do. For the other posts it was fairly easy for us to make cases against the Burrell-haters. For this...not so much. It was tough to tell people that always striking out over 100 times isn't a bad thing. It clearly is and is very tough to swallow. But while Burrell is constantly striking out on the field, we can all sleep at night knowing he is not striking out at a nightclub near by. Godspeed Patrick Brian.

Remaining: Defensive Liability, Summary Post (with new arguments brought up)

Sidenote: The posts on this page will become more regular now that I am back in my gay school routine after break. Also, I just started an internship at 610 WIP. My plan is to infiltrate them from the inside and take out Eskin with a swift ninja kick when he is least expecting it.

The Ultimate Pat Burrell Post Part 4- Meaningless Home Runs

While Skeeter is hanging out with the oldheads and apparently talking some trash, here is part 4 of our Pat Burrell topic:


How many times have you heard, “Yea, sure Pat the Bum can hit homeruns when the Phillies are winning 23-2 in the 9^th inning!” Well, I have heard that quite a bit. Let’s be honest, Pat isn’t Albert Pujols or David Ortiz, but he does not run his numbers up on bad pitching or meaningless situations. Let’s analyze his home runs from his “terrible” 2006…

Noteable pitchers he hit home runs off of:

Chris Carpenter
Chuck James (2)
Dontrelle Willis (2)
Tom Glavine
Chris Capuano
Livan Hernandez
Roger Clemens

A lot of the pitchers noted here are the cream of the crop (especially Willis, Carpenter, and Clemens).

ERA’s of the pitchers who hit HR’s off of:

ERA Under 3.00- 2
ERA Under 4.00- 8
ERA Under 5.00- 10
ERA Over 5.00- 9

I feel that this would fall in line with most other players in the majors. Every hitter has hit a few homers off of the guy who pitches 10.2 IP and lets us 13 runs giving him an ERA of like 13.43 or something outrageous like that.

Situations of the Home Run:

Tied- 9
Down- 14
Ahead- 6

Almost one-third of Pat’s homers occurred when the Phils were tied. Not bad in my opinion.

Only 4 of Pat’s home runs occurred in meaningless situations (times when after the home run is hit the team is still down more than 4 runs or when the home run is hit when the Phillies are already ahead by 5 or more runs). Now some might think hitting a solo home run in the 3^rd inning down 5-0 is meaningless, but if you know baseball then you know how fortunes can change with one swing of the bat. There is also a whole other argument about “meaningless” runs, but any run scored early in the game is important and also one where it gives your team the potential chance to tie the game with one swing of the bat.

Plus, who can forget the Grand Salami Burrell hit off of Mr. Clemens last September!

This post could have been about 10 pages long, analyzing each and every one of Pat’s HR’s, (baseballreference.com has some amazing data) but let’s save that for another time. We just want to point out that the Burrell haters have a field day tearing this guy apart, and while they do have some valid points, some (like this one) appear to be myths.

Sorry...

I have been in Florida hanging out with old people for the past week and will not return until Saturday. My team member was suppose to pick up the slack and finish out the Burrell posts while I was down here. Apparently that hasn't happened...that unreliable douche.

After this week, the Burrell posts will continue to rain upon this site until we feel it is necessary to stop. Then an in-depth look at our phils roster up until Spring Training starts.... a little over a month away!

So to anyone who enjoys reading our BS, sorry for Patrick's incompetence and laziness. I'll be sure to give him a spanking when I get back.
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that sounded gay.

LATER