Our infield for 2007 will be composed of young homegrown talent with Helms being the exception. Besides starting pitching, our biggest weakness in 2006 was 3rd base, which saw extremely sub par offense all year. So it became obvious heading into 2007 that third base was our second biggest need for improvement. And while everyone clamored for a signing of Ramirez or a trade to get Crede, we all settled for a veteran who oddly enough is getting better after passing through the age of 30. Here is what Wes did in 2006Defense
Helms spent 88 games with Florida playing first base and 1 game in Left Field. Playing 3b (the position we signed him for), Helms only played 23 games. Further more, using AdjG, he only played in 10 full 9-inning games committing 2 errors and not being involved in 1 double-play. Overall, in his career, he has compiled a RAA of -23 playing 3B.
Offense
While Helms defensive abilities may scare you, he did start hitting like a machine the second half of last year. He didn't start batting consistently above .250 until mid-June and still was struggling until August rolled around. Then, unlike Charlie Manuel's brain, something clicked and Helms finished out the year very strong, hitting .329 with a .575 SLG and 10 homeruns. 2006 was truly a Jekyll and Hyde season.
For the past two posts, we used Pat's subscription to Baseball Prospectus to formulate what this season had in store for our players. When researching Helms, however, I found that BP has him only getting 167 PA and is penciled in as a First Basemen. Since Howard will obviously be at first and we can only assume Helms is going to get to the plate more than 170 times, I decided to use my own brain and my own PECOTA.
2007
Defense
Well, if the past is an indicator for the future, we have to assume that Helms will not win any gold gloves anytime soon. He won't be nearly as good as Nunez was and won't make the plays that Bell could. I'm not going to throw any numbers out here, but I envision below average defense coming from one of the most important positions in baseball.
Offense
This is the reason we got Helms. The Phillies desperately needed more offensive production from third and hope Wes can provide that. Listed to the right, our own PECOTA has him batting .280 with 16 homeruns and 60 RBIs. I can't see him batting over .300 considering he spent over 5 months last season batting below .290. The power surge is a bit optimistic but he hit 10 dingers in a big ballpark in Miami and will benefit from our luxuriously small LF. The 60 RBIs are contingent on him batting 6th behind Burrell, an on-base machine. He is definitely what we needed: an upgrade.
But now here is where I am disturbed. Should we be comfortable with just an upgrade to Abraham "I can't swing at shit" Nunez? Last year, besides Tomas Perez, I believe Nunez was the worst hitter in all of baseball. Anyone on the free agent market or available through a trade is automatically an upgrade. So in comparison, yes it is nice to see Helms here. But should we be satisfied? I may be one of the only fans who isn't entirely complacent with Helms at 3rd base for us. Unless his turn around after the all-star break was for real, I can't see Helms being much better than what we got from David Bell in the past. Now I may be (and I hope I am) completely off about Helms' defensive INability and his offensive output. If he gives us the numbers I projected with average play at third base, then our team will certainly be improved in 2007. But like I said, it's all relative to how poor Nunez was in 06.
But still, we should all be thankful that it isn't Nunez who will be running out with the team come April 2.
3 comments:
We obviously could have done better talent/stats wise in the FA market, but Wes is a good guy and will fit in well with the clubhouse. In the big picture, this move is fine with me.
yea, also the one thing I forgot to point out is the contract Gillick got him for. 2 years at that price could be a steal.
I just re-read what I wrote and I hope it didn't come off as me hating this deal. I'm really more concerned about his glove than anything else. Nunez will probably be in the game late if it is close anyways though.
The contract that Helms signed will be an absolute steal if he can play defense "well" enough so it doesn't kill the team, and hit about .275 18-23 hr and knock in about 80. I don't expect many more homers than that, but he could once again hit for a high average (.290+). I'm not too concerned about his glove...but we'll see.
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