2007 Phillies Crystal Ball: Carlos Ruiz

For our next installment, we will use Driven To Deep Center's crystal ball and see what how it feels about a little man named Carlos Ruiz


2006 was the first chance Phillies' fans got the opportunity see what Ruiz could do at a major league level. He was called up in the beginning of May and got his first hit off of Pedro Martinez on May 9 (I was at the game). He struggled on his first call up amassing only 5 hits from May 6 to the 26. He was then sent back down, then called up again...then sent down again...then finally called up one last time in September. Let's see how Ruiz performed last season and what we can expect from him in 2007.

2006:
Defense
After beginning the season with Fasano and Lieberthal behind the plate, just about anyone would be considered an upgrade on defense. Ruiz, in 18.5 AdjG, committed 3 errors, had 10 assists and 1 passed ball. Since this is a small sample size, I don't feel it truly shows the kind of defensive makeup Ruiz has.

Offense
Ruiz struggled at first and never really found his swing on his first Major League call-up. He never looked uncomfortable at the plate, however, never seemed able to handle big league pitching. But when September came around, Ruiz came around. From the 6th until the end of the season, he went 9-22 and was finally showing positive signs at the plate. Overall he finished with a line of .261/.316/.435 with 3 dingers and 10 RBIs.

What can we expect from our "catcher of the future"? Well, since I am a psychic, I will tell you...

Defense
Overall, we can expect better defense behind the plate than we have seen in recent years past. Baseball Prospectus is projecting a FRAA (Fielding Runs Above Average) of 3 for 2007. Don't expect a Pudge, however, we should get solid play calling and defense from Ruiz in 2007.

Offense
This is difficult to project because, like Nunez, we don't really know how much time he will see at the plate. If he struggles in Spring Training and Barajas and Coste hit the cover off the ball, we may not even see Ruiz on April 2. The odds of him not making the squad, however, are slim and unfortunately it seems like Coste will be the odd man out. Baseball Prospectus is projecting a PECOTA line of .278/11/52 to go along with a .439 SLG and a VORP of 15.1. They also see a 41% chance of improvement rate along with a 12% breakout rate. Since his playing time could be split between 2 other players, projecting Ruiz's numbers can be very risky. Our own PECOTA that we made up on this site (listed to the right) has him hitting 13 homeruns with 48 rbis, which is very similar to BP's.
The biggest plus, I can see with Ruiz is his speed. He is not considered a fast runner by any means, however, we now finally have a catcher that our pitcher can bunt over. In 2006, if either Fasano or Lieberthal got on base, our pitcher had to lay down a perfect bunt to move either one to second. Ruiz isn't base-stealer but he does have decent enough speed to not inhibit the Phillies once he is on basepaths.

This graph shows Ruiz's 2007 EqA (total offensive value per out) forecast:


Norm= League average
Replace= Replacement Level player (a player who will produce around 75% of the number of runs as an average player)

Bottom Line: Ruiz will be an average catcher, with average hitting ability, to go along with average power, and average defense on what we pray is an above-average team. A lot of his numbers depend on his playing time, which as of now seems like it will be split between Barajas. Overall, I will be glad to see him start this summer and hope we can depend on him for the next few years. We shouldn't expect for outstanding offense from our catcher position in 2007. We can all deal with this knowing our first baseman can hit enough homeruns for practically our whole team.

My guarantee to you: He will hit better than Nunez. Quote me