2007 Phillies Crystal Ball: Abraham Nunez

Today is our first installment of a series of Crystal Ball Posts that we have planned for the 2007 Phillies. It is a brief synopsis of what each player did in 2006 and what we can expect from them this season. We will start with the bottom of the Barrel. First up: Abraham Nunez

The 2006 Phillies came within a few games of making the ever-elusive playoffs. Certainly, some of that blame has to fall on the below-average performance of our starting third basemen during the 2nd half of the season. Now, there are many reasons why we did not make the playoffs. But when your everyday third basemen can't hit with over a .600 OPS, you are most certainly in lots of trouble.

Let's take a look at Nunez's 2006 and see where he is headed during the Phillies 2007 campaign.

2006:
Defense
There can't be too many complaints here. The guy has got a solid glove and is capable of making some extraordinary plays in the field.

Offense
*WARNING: GRAPHIC CONTENT BELOW*

AVG .211 (late surge kept him over the Mendoza line)
OBP.303 (a sickening observation...but maybe his strong point for the year!)
SLG .273 (that's right...it was under .300!...for a 3B!)
VORP: -18.2 (meaning that basically you could get anyone to play the position and they couldn't screw it up as much as this guy)

Home or away, night or day, this guy had an incredibly bad season. There is not a single aspect of his offense that was above average. Surely we cannot live with this in 2007. So what is on the horizon?

2007:
Defense
There is little reason to believe he won't be an above-average 3B. Although his ability dropped slightly from '05, he will still be a solid contributor in the field. We'll see if Manuel decides to sub him in during the late innings at 3B.

Offense
Well, he can't be that bad again can he? Fortunately, no I don't think he can. Pecota forsees a line of .241/.307/.308. But who can ever tell with this guy. Up and down over the past couple of years. One good thing is that with Helms now onboard, there is another option. So I wouldn't look for Nunez to see much more than 200-250 PA's during the year. He just simply does not bring much to the table as far as offense goes. Non-existant power, not much speed, inconsistent bat, strikes out way too much.

This graph shows Nunez's 2007 EqA (total offensive value per out) forecast:



Norm= League average
Replace= Replacement Level player (a player who will produce around 75% of the number of runs as an average player)

Even with the most optimistic of views (95th percentile), he would still be around league average (2.60). More probable is him performing aroud the 45th or 55th percentile which would give him an EqA similar to that of last years (.205-.215).


Overall Outlook:
Listen, Honest Abe seems like a nice guy. But he simply played some very bad baseball last year. It seems as if 2005 was truly a mirage as he has shown nothing since then. I don't think it is unfair to say we can't really count on this guy for much else other than his glove.