2007 Phillies Crystal Ball: Shane Victorino vs Aaron Rowand

Today, instead of the boring analysis of a single player, I thought it would be better to square two of our players off in a cage match. Two men battling viciously over a spot they both deserve. It might get intense, sweaty and dirty. Think Wrestlemania V, when Macho Man and Hulk Hogan fought each other to end their bitter feud. So I bring to you the Flyin' Hawaiian vs Crash Rowand...


As it currently stands, during this balls-freezing cold front that is destroying the northeast, the center field job belongs to Aaron Rowand. He has the most experience in that position and was brought here to patrol the center of CBP. He covers a lot of ground and plays very hard (how many time have you heard that?). Victorino is slated to take over in right. He has a tremendous arm, which is ideal for RF. He, like Rowand, also covers a ton of the field and plays balls-out. He is sort of a Hawaiian clone of Rowand with a better cannon. This set-up, while it may leave some to be desired at the plate, covers a ton of ground in the outfield. We will be able to just put Burrell on the foul-line, which allows him to be closer to the stands and all the drunk college girls screaming for him. Everyone is happy

But that is if Opening day was tomorrow, which it obviously isn't. For all we know, Rowand may be patrolling Petco park this summer. So for a second, let us pretend that we have the choice to pick which one would be our center fielder. Who should it be?

2006 numbers

Victorino
462 PA
.287/.346/.414
6 HR 46 RBIs
12.1 VORP

Rowand
445 PA
.262/.321/.425
12 HR 47 RBI
8.8 VORP

Overall, in nearly identical plate appearances, Victorino had the better year. Taken into account is the fact that he is faster, a better thrower, younger and has a WAY cooler batter stance (Aaron seems like he is about to take a painful dump). Not to degrade Rowand and his inspiring play, but Victorino offered more last year. Plus, he is a switch hitter...which is always nice


So how about 2007? Was Victorino's season a fluke or a sign that he can improve to become an everyday player? Was Rowand's year sub par due to his May trip to the DL? Or was his 2004 season the fluke?

2007
Baseball Prospectus is projecting lines that me and you both could come up with. Their numbers on both Victorino and Rowand are strikingly similar with neither one protruding as a standout over the other. So let's use slightly different measures:

Speed - Victorino
Defense - Tie
Arm - Victorino
Power - Rowand
Reliability - Rowand (Shane still hasn't played a whole season)
Average - Tie (I have no reason for either one to be better)
Strikeouts - Victorino (in a good way)
And the most important one (in my opinion): The best hitter for the 2-hole - Victorino

Overall, Victorino is the more valuable player to the Phillies for this season and the future. His main flaw is his inexperience for a whole season's play. Can we count on him? I believe we can. We have to find out eventually if he is our center field answer for the next few years. Rowand, while I love the guy, is expendable ONLY if we can get a decent replacement for RF. The winner of the match for center field is the flyin' Hawaiian.
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Of course, none of this really matters because they won't be heading into Spring Training battling for the center field spot. Rowand is likely gone after this season. This is merely my boredom speaking out saying I want Victorino to be our center fielder and Rowand and Lieber shipped out for a RF and bullpen help.

I JUST FREAKIN LOVE THIS GUY!



Also, from mlb.com:

"Burrell, responding to a challenge, will make foes pay for pitching around Ryan Howard with a 40-homer, 120-RBI season."
...Sweet music to my ears