Mad-dog struggled (mightily) last summer. He started off pitching relatively well in the rotation in his first 2 starts and surprised/encouraged fans. Then, the Gavin Floyd effect came about. He started to suck and became rapidly inconsistent. Luckily, for us, Hamels came up and allowed Ryan to travel back to the bullpen where he belongs. Then, when we couldn't stomach Floyd anymore, Madson came back to the rotation and remained an inconsistent 5th man for our rotation until Wolf returned from the DL. Here is his 2006 numbers2006
11 wins, 9 losses
5.70 ERA
1.68 WHIP
134 IP
20 homeruns allowed
-5 stuff
...scary
It has long been suspected that while Madson was spectacular in 2004, part of the reasoning behind this was the league was not used to his stuff. Once Ryan traveled around the league a few times, his changeup seemed to become less effective and thus he became very hittable. The reason he failed in the rotation was his inability to control and throw a 3rd pitch. He showed signs of being unstoppable (16 inning Mets game, June 29 at Baltimore), however, he couldn't always effectively command his 3 pitches. This is the main reasoning Madson is meant more for the bullpen.
Here is what we feel we can expect from Madson in the upcoming season...
2007
Baseball Prospectus' 2007 EQA Distribution Graph:
At 50%, they are projecting an ERA of 4.38 with a WHIP of 1.42 and 65 IPOverall, I feel this is what we can (and should) expect of Ryan this upcoming season. Until he shows us otherwise, I have no rhyme or reason for thinking we can count on Madson for anything more than a 7th inning relief pitcher. 8th inning set-up man is out of the question, in my opinion, since he is probably going to run up a WHIP of around 1.40. I do, however, feel this year will be more similar to his 2005 season, rather than his 2006. Comfortability is a feeling Madson probably never felt switching back and forth from the rotation to the bullpen.
If Gillick is serious about obtaining an 8th inning set-up man (with so-called closer experience), then Madson will be our 7th inning man, which I am fine with. He and Geary can split that inning and until Gordon hits the DL or one of them has a breakout/spectacular first half, will remain there for the season. He is still young, 26, and does have the chance to once again be a valuable part of our bullpen. This year I feel we can expect an ERA between 4.25 and 4.50, however, this is relative to how Manuel chooses to use him. And that is what scares me most: Manuel's inability to manage a bullpen.
If used correctly, this lanky bastard can be a consistent contributor and help us get to the 93 wins I feel is coming this season. (more on the 93 wins in a later post)
Also... the super bowl was a letdown. All those fumbles made Chicago and Indianapolis look like high school players. Stupid rain ruining my night
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
and another thing that is still ruining me:
4 comments:
I just caught Burrell sexing my cube again...
I agree, Madson I think is best suited for splitting 7th inning work with Geary. His curve is nasty, but his other pitches do so little to set it up. I think if he throws first pitch strikes and paints corners to set up the curve as his out pitch, he'd do pretty well. Too often he's throwing that duce early in the count and he's shown his best card to the hitter already.
93 wins your predict....wow.
As team stands right now 89. If we can add a reliever worth something, 91.
Love your optimism though.
93 is more of a destiny number...
In 1993, I believe the Phillies did something cool. I just think 93 wins would be awesome
And yes...I am being extremely optimistic. I feel like someone has to offset the negativity that usually surrounds this town...mostly the radio stations
Good analysis too, furiousball. I agree. If he isn't hitting those spots, he is in trouble.
After last year's horrendous struggle, the Phils need to take a step back with Madson, give him less responsibility and less pressure. He's still young, and hopefully he comes into his own again. With a solid rebound season, the 7th inning will be his alone in 2008, and I haven't written him off from potentially being an eigth inning guy down the line. I do think Geary is going to regress, however, and I think a 4.25 ERA out of both of them is accurate.
Post a Comment