The Ultimate Pat Burrell Post: Part 1 - Clutch

Please read with an open mind:

Here it is…basically one of the reason we started this page. After this series of posts, the record on everyone’s whipping boy, Patrick Brian Burrell, will finally be set straight...hopefully. If you don’t want Burrell to any longer remain a Philadelphia Phillie, then read this. If you loathe everything about him and boo every time ‘Holy Diver’ plays at Citizens Bank Park…then you MUST read this. My other team member, Patrick, and I have now gotten together and constructed, using only facts and stats, a series of posts on why Burrell should not be run out of town. We thought about the main complaints of Burrell and have come up with six main arguments fans give: Clutchness, Salary, Meaningless Homeruns, Strikeouts, Defensive Liability, and Always Looks to Walk. We will now try to argue against each claim and present an alternative viewpoint on Pat Burrell.

For today we will simply rectify the classic Philadelphia statement:
Pat Burrell Can’t Hit in the Clutch.

First, let’s take a look at how “clutch” he was during the past three years (We don’t feel it is necessary to go back further than this, and his great 2002 year and his abysmal 2003 year even out):

w/ RISP:
2004: .263/.392/.361
2005: .313/.429/.598
2006: .222/.376/.346

Like many other players around baseball analyzed, Burrell fits the mold as someone whose numbers w/ RISP fluctuate from year to year. These numbers here show that Pat Burrell hits either bad, mediocre, or excellent. His SLG is slightly down, but his AVG and OBP are up in these situations. The drop in slugging is problematic, but the fact that he is getting on base and whacking base hits is encouraging. Historically hitters generally hit for better average w/ RISP, so Burrell’s jump in average is to be expected.

w/RISP and 2 outs:
2004: .317/.453/.500
2005: .295/.426/.693
2006: .167/.363/.256

So while Burrell is mediocre w/ RISP, he is rather good w/ RISP and 2 outs. His struggles in this department last year are well documented, but the prior 2 years he was on fire. This is all despite the prevalence of hitters to hit less than their normal AVG with 2 outs and RISP. So, in conclusion, the numbers show that Burrell isn’t a Manny Ramirez or Derek Jeter who will put up ridiculous numbers with Runners in Scoring Position. But, he also is not an Alfonso Soriano or a Ryan Howard, both of whom have consistently hit well below their normal average w/ RISP. That is not to take anything away from Mr. MVP, but it just shows how biased fans can be sometimes. If you are going to rip Pat Burrell, there are certainly things you can complain and rant and rave about, but hitting with runners in scoring position is not one of these things.

Close & Late Game Situations (according to ESPN.com):
2004: .222/.387/.361
2005: .272/.381/.444
2006: .217/.393/.435

This is an area where you can find fault with Burrell’s play. If you take the three-year average, his AVG is in-line with his normal numbers, OBP is a slight upgrade, but the SLG is once again down. Problematic? Yes. You sure as hell don’t want one of your power hitters to have a drop in SLG. But, for some to say he cracks under the pressure or can’t come up with the big hit, is going overboard.

Career:
Runners On: .271/.379/.486/
Bases Empty: .246/.345/.473

Career numbers show a better everything with Runners On as opposed to his numbers with nobody on base. In a future post, we will tackle the “Pat Burrell only hits when it’s a blowout" argument. Now clearly we are not using the numbers above to prove that Pat Burrell is a clutch-hitting machine, but instead trying to debunk the myth that he can’t hit when it matters.

But, you can’t stop some morons from looking at the 2006 numbers and figuring that’s what he’s been doing his entire year in clutch situations, even though it simply isn’t the case. True, Burrell doesn’t set himself apart in clutch situations, but few players actually do. His normal career numbers and his clutch numbers are basically the same. And even if you want to get on him for his 2006 performance in these scenarios, you’ve got to give him his due credit for his outstanding 2005 performances...which had him seventh in the MVP voting. When was the last time anyone on the radio mentioned that? And that’s the thing, fans are lopsided and only see what they want to see. And now we will have to wait and see how Pat the Bat comes out of the gate in 2007. Hopefully the Phillies fans will take their blinders off and common sense will prevail in this now monumental argument that has pitted sons vs. fathers, girlfriends vs. boyfriends, and bloggers vs. bloggers.

So this concludes only part one of a remaining six Burrell posts that we have all lined up for you all. In the coming days we will post on the other 5 arguments mentioned above as well as a concluding statement post summing up our overall feelings on this issue. We would greatly appreciate any feedback, comments, arguments or agreements on our viewpoints. Our emails our listed and the comment section is always open. If we missed something about Burrell that should be mentioned, we will be more than happy to argue or agree with it.

Once again, we are not claiming that Pat Burrell is the best Phillie ever or that he is the next Ted Williams. Just simply stating that he is the most unjustly hated Pro Athlete in Philadelphia today. Thank you.

Tomorrow: Contract Talk