The Case for Jon Lieber

The general consensus in Philadelphia was that the arrival of Adam Eaton was Jon Lieber's curtain call. First the rumors swirled that he was heading to Milwaukee, then to Texas, then to Boston, then maybe to the Rockford Peaches. But he just hauled up to Phillies Spring Training in an armor-plated Ford F1-Bauer. Pat Gillick has yet to move Lieber for either Derrick Turnbow, Akinori Otsuka, Mike Lowell, Kevin Mench, or Hank Blaylock. I'd like to have any of those guys on the Phils, but I'm here to argue that Ol' Round Belly should stay on the mound in South Philly for one more year.

I don't want to be the one to say it, but as good as the Phils rotation is, there are still a couple of guys that have a slight history of breaking down. And it would stand to reason that carrying Starter Insurance wouldn't be such a bad idea. The Bullpen currently looks like this:

1. Tom Gordon (closer)
2. Ryan Madson
3. Geoff Geary
4. Antonio Alfonseca
5. Fabio Castro
6. Eude Brito (pictured)
7. Clay Condrey
8. Brian Sanches
9. Matt Smith

A lot better than last year, granted, but not ONE of those guys can step in and start. Madson did that last year and we missed the Wild Card by 3 games thanks, in no small part, to his 9 losses and 5.69 ERA. I blame Sucky Poo Poo Pants Floyd for that more than anyone, but, thankfully, that skidmark won't be playing for us in 2007. Madson will, and I like him in the 7th inning, but under NO circumstances should he start. The argument for giving Lieber his walking papers is that we need to really bolster this bullpen, but do we need a Linebrink or a Otsuka if we shore up the middle relievers and Manuel does a better job managing the starters so guys like Madson are fresh. The early reports from Clearwater are that Antonio Alfonseca is in the best shape he's been in for a while and his velocity is back up around 96. This is by no means a barometer of what he's going to do all year, but if he stays consistent, there's your 8th inning guy. Fabio Castro eats innings, Eude Brito was a pleasant surprise last year, Matt Smith showed a lot of promise with a .87 ERA in 20.2 innings pitched, and you always know what you're getting out of Geoff Geary. I'm much more confident in the Bullpen going into 2007 than I was in 2006. I do, however, understand the argument that we also need Gordon Insurance should he go down, hence Linebrink or Otsuka. Alfonseca, however, closed on every team he's been on in the past when he was 100% and it sounds like he is again. In a pinch, I'll trust Madson in the 8th inning. The problem is that this is all contingent on Manuel having half a Goddamn clue what he's doing with said bullpen, so therein lies the risk.

Now what would we do with six starters if Jon Lieber remains a Phillie? The easy answer is put Eaton in the bullpen and have Lieber as your 4th or 5th starter. Problem is that the scouting report on Eaton is he heats up and gets stronger after a couple of innings of work, a classic earmark of a starter. Plus, I just don't think he's that good of a starter, so why just take his worst innings for $9mil a year? I hope he has an amazing year, I hope I eat my words, but I just get nervous knowing Adam Eaton will be out there every fifth day. The more difficult choice, because it's rarely been done before, is to trot out a six-man rotation for the first few months of the season. It would be great for guys like Jamie Moyer who'd be pitching in September with plenty of rest, but might alienate younger guys like Free-Agent-To-Be Freddy Garcia, who probably wants his win totals up. (I still think he's re-signing with us, though.) This move might give the Bullpen more rest, however, and let Gillick take his time deciding who he'd like to bring in to suppliment Gordon instead of having to make a quick move if the 'Pen underperforms.

I think keeping Lieber and then supplimenting the Bullpen another way is the best thing for Gillick to do. Lieber truely wants to pitch here and I believe he is better than Adam Eaton. That said, if it comes down to Rowand vs. Lieber, the Ol' Donut Hole's gotta go. It's common knowledge that Rowand will hit 91 Home-Runs this year, but besides that, we're not as deep at Outfield as I would like to be. I have no faith in Roberson or Bourn. Jayson Werth is a nice fourth outfielder but, true to Phillies form, can't stay healthy. Yes, Victorino is a better defensive outfielder, but he'll still be starting in Right anyway and we just flat-out have no one to replace "Crash" Rowand if he goes.

If the Lieber trade is good, I'm sure Gillick will do the right thing, but at the end of the day, everyone knows it's just not right to separate a fat man from his cheesesteaks.

Other Phillies Notes:

• Burrell getting married is a VERY GOOD thing. Dallas Green was right, and even though Burrell won't admit it, his nightlife was always a problem. I'm sure the new Missus will curb that particular hobby.




• As mentioned above, finding a fourth outfielder might just be a more important priority to Pat Gillick than Bullpen help.




• "I hope you don't see a change in me. I'll manage the same way."-Charlie Manuel, Philadelphia Daily News. Oh, thank GOD! For a minute there I thought I was going into the season confident in this team.




• More from Manuel in the PDN: "I know I'm not easy. I can be very red-assed and mean as anybody." Really? REALLY?




• Chris Coste better make the roster or I'll kill Anna Nico-nevermind.

One Personal Note (sorry Skeet)

• Happy Trails, Keith Foulke, the REAL 2004 World Series MVP.